NHPM(601882) 国金证券·2024-04-30 06:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, reflecting a positive outlook based on its market position and growth potential [9][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2024 showed a slight decline, with revenue of 756 million yuan, down 3.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, down 3.67% year-on-year. The overall industry remains weak, with a 9.6% year-on-year decrease in new orders and a 14.9% decrease in orders on hand [4][5]. - A new policy aimed at promoting the replacement of industrial equipment, particularly machine tools over 10 years old, is expected to boost demand in the domestic market. This is anticipated to enhance the industry's recovery, benefiting the company as a leading player [1][4]. - The company has seen significant growth in overseas markets, with a 76.06% increase in overseas revenue in 2023, contributing to an improved profit margin compared to domestic operations [42]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 756 million yuan and a net profit of 130 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.41% and 3.67% respectively [4]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is 733 million yuan, 883 million yuan, and 1.059 billion yuan, indicating a steady growth trajectory [13][45]. Industry Outlook - The machine tool industry is currently experiencing weak demand, but the introduction of equipment replacement policies is expected to stimulate market recovery [1][5]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the anticipated increase in demand due to its leading market position and proactive strategies in overseas markets [1][42]. Growth Projections - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 21.77% in 2024, followed by 20.94% in 2025 and 17.25% in 2026 [45]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, with estimates of 26.70% in 2024 and gradually increasing to 27.10% by 2026 [45].