NHPM(601882) 中泰证券·2024-04-30 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [14][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 756 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.41%, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, down 3.67% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to weak demand for industrial mother machines since the second half of 2023. However, there is optimism for a rebound in domestic demand and continued growth driven by import substitution and increasing overseas market share [16][17]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing import substitution, particularly in high-end CNC machine tools, as restrictions on exports from developed countries to China increase. In 2023, the import value of CNC machine tools was approximately 5.41 billion USD, accounting for 35.4% of domestic consumption [17]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 716 million, 837 million, and 962 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 18, and 16 [17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 756 million yuan, a decrease of 3.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, down 3.67% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [16]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2024 were 28.47% and 17.25%, respectively, showing slight declines due to reduced capacity utilization from weak demand [17]. Growth Potential - The company is positioned for long-term growth due to domestic demand recovery and import substitution, particularly in high-end machine tools. The ongoing development of core components and expansion into overseas markets are expected to enhance performance [17]. - The report highlights the establishment of subsidiaries in Singapore and Thailand, indicating a strategic focus on international markets, which are anticipated to grow faster than domestic markets [17]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, projecting revenues to grow from 3.32 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.98 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13% [2]. - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 15% from 2023 to 2026, reflecting strong operational efficiency and market positioning [2].