CBC(SH:600132) Huaan Securities·2024-04-30 14:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Chongqing Beer achieved a revenue of 4.29 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 450 million yuan, up 16.8% year-on-year [1] - The report emphasizes the continued high-end product strategy, with revenue growth driven by premium products, particularly in the southern region [1][2] - Cost reductions exceeded expectations, with a gross margin increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 3.3% decrease in ton costs [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the revenue was 4.29 billion yuan (+7.2%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 450 million yuan (+16.8%) [1] - The company expects total revenue for 2024-2026 to reach 15.8 billion, 16.6 billion, and 17.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.4%, 5.3%, and 5.8% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.48 billion, 1.63 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 11.0%, 10.1%, and 7.5% respectively [2][3] - The report forecasts a gross margin of 49.8% for 2024, increasing to 50.7% in 2025 and remaining stable in 2026 [2][3] Earnings Forecast - The report maintains the earnings forecast, projecting a net profit of 1.48 billion yuan for 2024, 1.63 billion yuan for 2025, and 1.76 billion yuan for 2026 [1][2] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 24, 22, and 20 times, respectively [2][3]