Q1产销修复明显，农药景气或边际改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.69 CNY, based on a 12x PE for 2024 [4][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant recovery in production and sales in Q1 2024, with major raw materials and intermediates showing a sequential increase in sales volume [3][4]. - The agricultural chemical sector is expected to see marginal improvements in market conditions, driven by a stabilization in product prices and an increase in export volumes [1][3][16]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 5.868 billion CNY, a decrease of 35% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.439 billion CNY, down 38% year-on-year [15]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.215 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 37% but a sequential increase of 57%, with a net profit of 0.225 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 57% but a sequential increase of 95% [15]. - The forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.177 billion CNY, 8.291 billion CNY, and 9.135 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 22%, 15.53%, and 10.17% [4][9]. Industry Outlook - The agricultural chemical sector is showing signs of recovery, with a 51% year-on-year increase in pesticide formulation exports in the first quarter of 2024, indicating a potential upturn in demand for raw materials [1][3]. - The company is focusing on technological innovation and has successfully launched several projects, enhancing its integrated supply chain from raw materials to fine chemicals [16].