Tsingtao Brewery(600600) Minsheng Securities·2024-05-05 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 81.96 yuan [2][6] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for Q1 2024 showed steady growth, with revenue reaching 10.15 billion yuan (+5.19% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.597 billion yuan (+10.06% YoY), and adjusted net profit of 1.513 billion yuan (+12.11% YoY) [1] - Despite a slight pressure on sales volume due to a high base in Q1 2023, the company maintained a steady pace of product structure upgrading, with mid-to-high-end products accounting for an increasing proportion of sales [1] - Cost reductions and improved pricing power contributed to a significant increase in gross margin, which rose by 2.12 percentage points YoY to 40.44% in Q1 2024 [1] - The company's revenue is expected to accelerate in Q2 2024 as the beer season approaches, with market investment activities and a lower sales base [1] - The report forecasts revenue growth of 4.3%/4.1%/3.9% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth of 17.9%/14.6%/12.4% over the same period [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 35.396 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.031 billion yuan [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 38.66% in 2023A to 44.18% in 2026E, driven by cost reductions and product structure upgrades [4] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 15.55% in 2023A to 18.67% in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 26x in 2023A to 17x in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Industry and Market Outlook - The beer industry in China is in a favorable competitive stage, with significant room for premiumization driven by both supply and demand factors [1] - The 8-10 yuan price segment shows strong demand, and the company's flagship product, Classic, is well-positioned to capture market share in core markets [1] - The company's revenue resilience and cost advantages are expected to support stable performance, with a focus on the recovery of on-premise consumption channels [1] Valuation and Projections - The report projects EPS of 3.69/4.22/4.75 yuan for 2024-2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 22/19/17x [2][4] - The company's PB ratio is expected to decline from 4.1x in 2023A to 3.2x in 2026E, reflecting improved asset efficiency [4] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to decrease from 15.15x in 2023A to 10.09x in 2026E, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [4]