PETROCHINA(601857) 信达证券·2024-05-05 08:30Investment Rating - The report suggests a stable investment outlook for the company, particularly in the context of high oil prices, which enhances profitability in the refined oil sales segment [3][18]. Core Insights - The company's refined oil sales volume in 2023 reached 166 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, indicating a recovery from the pandemic's impact [3]. - The company maintains a strong market position with a 20% market share in the domestic fuel retail sector, supported by a network of 22,800 gas stations [3]. - Non-oil business revenue reached 32.3 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 5% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 8% [5]. - The company has implemented various measures to enhance refining efficiency, which has improved its ability to withstand high oil prices [18]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company's refined oil sales are significantly influenced by downstream demand and international oil price fluctuations, with a historical average of 38% of sales volume sourced externally [3]. - The profitability of the refined oil sales segment is notably higher when oil prices exceed $80 per barrel, with an operating profit center of 15 billion yuan, compared to 3.2 billion yuan when prices are below this threshold [3]. Non-Oil Business - The non-oil business, primarily through Kunlun Convenience Stores, has shown steady growth, with over 20,000 stores nationwide, capturing 18.8% of the convenience store market [5]. - The non-oil segment's operating profit reached 2.6 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a stable contribution to overall performance [5]. Refining and Chemical Production - The company has been enhancing its refining capabilities through projects like ethane-to-ethylene, which has increased production capacity and improved cost efficiency [14][18]. - The report highlights the challenges in the domestic ethylene market, where reliance on imports for high-end products remains significant, with a self-sufficiency rate of only 41% in 2022 [9]. Financial Metrics - The company's capital expenditure in 2023 was approximately 273.48 billion yuan, with a focus on upstream exploration and development, which accounted for about 91% of total capital spending [42]. - The report projects a stable financial outlook, with expected revenue growth and improved profit margins in the coming years [29][56].