PETROCHINA(601857) 信达证券·2024-05-05 10:15Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance compared to the benchmark index [61]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from the rising oil and gas industry, with significant contributions anticipated from its exploration and development segment due to its strong resource endowment and effective unconventional oil and gas exploration [84]. - The optimization of asset quality, coupled with the deepening reforms of state-owned enterprises, is likely to lead to a revaluation of the company's value, as operational efficiency and vitality are expected to improve under the guidance of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [85]. - The company is implementing advanced refining technologies, such as ethane cracking, which are expected to alleviate cost pressures in the refining segment, enhancing profitability even in a high oil price environment [86]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2022, the total revenue was 3,239,167 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.90%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 148,738 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 61.39% [82]. - Forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate total revenues of 3,191,272 million yuan, 3,299,873 million yuan, and 3,329,005 million yuan, with corresponding net profits of 184,415 million yuan, 198,044 million yuan, and 209,682 million yuan, showing a steady growth trajectory [82]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the domestic refined oil export quota for 2023 reached 39.99 million tons, surpassing the total for 2022, with a significant portion allocated to the company [9]. - The company is expected to maintain a high level of refined oil export quotas in 2024, allowing it to effectively manage market price fluctuations and enhance refining profitability [9]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a continued supply gap in ethylene production in China, with demand projected to reach 6,690,000 tons in 2023 and increasing in subsequent years, while new ethylene capacity is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 12% [43]. - The overall oil and gas market is expected to remain tight, supporting mid-to-high oil prices, which will benefit the company's exploration and production segments [84].