分红稳健，业绩持续增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinhua Winshare (601811) [1] Core Views - Xinhua Winshare achieved a 2023 operating income of 11.87 billion yuan, up 8.6% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.58 billion yuan, up 13.1% YoY [1] - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.47 billion yuan, up 7% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.3% to 210 million yuan [1] - The company has a stable dividend policy, with a 2023 dividend yield of 5.2% for its H-shares [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the Western Development Strategy, potentially qualifying for a 15% corporate income tax rate [8] Business Performance Publishing Business - In 2023, the publishing business generated revenue of 2.99 billion yuan, up 8.8% YoY [42] - In Q1 2024, the publishing business achieved revenue of 890 million yuan, with 550 million yuan from textbooks and 250 million yuan from general books [42] - The company ranks 11th in market share among 37 publishing groups in China and 7th among local publishing groups [42] Distribution Business - In 2023, the distribution business achieved revenue of 10.49 billion yuan, up 5.5% YoY [19] - In Q1 2024, the distribution business generated revenue of 2.17 billion yuan, with 1.14 billion yuan from textbooks and 960 million yuan from general books [19] - The company is actively expanding into short video and live streaming e-commerce channels, with expected growth rates of 30%/25%/20% for 2024-2026 [7] Education Informatization - The company is focusing on education informatization, covering 6,190 schools and serving 4.662 million students through its "Wenxuan Youxue" online platform [19] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 11.87 billion yuan in 2023 to 17.03 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 12.7% [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 1.58 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.04 billion yuan in 2026 [21] - EPS is projected to rise from 1.28 yuan in 2023 to 1.65 yuan in 2026 [21] - The company's ROE is expected to remain stable at around 12% from 2023 to 2026 [21] Valuation - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 11.45x in 2024 to 8.85x in 2026 [21] - The PB ratio is expected to decline from 1.38x in 2024 to 1.01x in 2026 [21]