2024年一季报点评：深化“三核三链”，货运量稳步增长

Company Overview - The company operates a globally leading fleet of specialized vessels, including pulp carriers, semi-submersibles, multi-purpose vessels, heavy lift vessels, timber carriers, asphalt carriers, and car carriers, totaling 127 vessels with a combined deadweight of 4.684 million tons [2] - The fleet consists of 105 owned vessels (3.267 million DWT) and 22 chartered vessels (1.417 million DWT), providing safe and efficient transportation services [2] - The company has a diversified revenue stream, with multi-purpose vessels, pulp carriers, heavy lift vessels, and semi-submersibles contributing significantly to the total revenue [37] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 12.01 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.6% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 29.6% to 1.06 billion yuan [26] - The company's gross margin in 2023 was 17.7%, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to increased operating costs [71] - The company's four-fee ratio (management, sales, financial, and R&D expenses) rose to 11.5% in 2023, up 2 percentage points YoY [8] Operational Highlights - The company completed a total cargo volume of 16.239 million tons in 2023, an increase of 12.7% YoY, and plans to exceed 17.5 million tons in 2024 [27][46] - The company's revenue from pulp carriers increased by 33.5% YoY in 2023, while revenue from car carriers decreased by 77.6% due to a shift in business model [37] - The company's semi-submersible and heavy lift vessel fleets are expected to maintain high charter rates, with projected revenue growth in 2024 [10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is deepening its "Three Cores and Three Chains" strategy, focusing on new energy industries, advanced manufacturing, and strategic bulk commodities [44] - The company is expanding its key industrial chains, including pulp logistics, project logistics, and automotive logistics, to enhance its competitive edge [44] - The company plans to deliver new vessels in 2024, primarily multi-purpose pulp carriers, heavy lift vessels, and car carriers, to support business growth [44] Industry and Market Position - The company is a global leader in specialized shipping, with a fleet structure that includes multi-purpose vessels, heavy lift vessels, pulp carriers, and semi-submersibles [41] - The company operates in over 160 countries and 1,600 ports, with a strong presence in key routes such as Europe, America, Africa, and the Pacific [42] - The company is the only shipping company with successful operational experience in both Arctic and Antarctic routes, providing flexible and safe transportation services [42] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.31 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.61 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 0.61, 0.69, and 0.75 yuan [38] - The company's PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 10x, 9x, and 8x, respectively, reflecting its diversified business model and profit elasticity [38] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 19.6%, 20.1%, and 20.6% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, driven by the recovery of the offshore industry and increased workloads [10]