Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.8% from the current price of HKD 1.67 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 earnings fell by 6% year-on-year, which was within expectations. The decline was attributed to a 3% drop in average on-grid electricity prices and a 5.4% increase in depreciation due to new installations [1][2]. - The management expects to add over 2 GW of new capacity in 2024, with a conservative estimate of 1.8 GW and 2.1 GW for 2024 and 2025, respectively [2][3]. - The projected earnings for 2024 show a modest increase of 4.6% year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7% from 2023 to 2026 [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 12,802 million in 2023 to RMB 13,025 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [3][9]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from RMB 2,753 million in 2023 to RMB 2,856 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [3][9]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.0 in 2023 and 4.8 in 2024, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [3][9]. Operational Data - The company reported a total installed capacity of 12,981 MW in 2023, with expectations to reach 13,831 MW by 2025 [6][9]. - The total electricity generation is projected to increase from 31,608 GWh in 2023 to 34,248 GWh in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 8.7% [6][9]. Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio has increased by 13 percentage points to 23% in 2023, but further increases are expected to be limited as the company focuses on achieving its installation targets [2][3].
1季度盈利下跌在预期中，利用小时回升对全年增长较关键