PETROCHINA(601857) 国泰君安·2024-05-06 05:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for PetroChina (601857) is "Buy" with a target price of 12.66 RMB, up from the previous target of 10.66 RMB [1][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that PetroChina's performance in Q1 2024 met expectations, driven by upstream efficiency improvements and growth in natural gas sales [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 812.2 billion RMB in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.7 billion RMB, up 4.7% year-on-year [1]. - The report emphasizes the continuous cost reduction and efficiency enhancement efforts by the company, which have led to an upward revision of profit forecasts [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, PetroChina's oil and gas equivalent production was 413 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with crude oil production at 197.3 million barrels, up 0.9% [1]. - The average price of Brent crude oil in Q1 2024 was 83.16 USD per barrel, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1]. - The company reported a significant increase in natural gas sales, with operating profit from natural gas sales reaching 123 billion RMB, up 21.5% year-on-year [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue forecast for PetroChina is projected to be 3,102.47 billion RMB for 2024, with a net profit forecast of 172.61 billion RMB, indicating a growth rate of 7% [6]. - The report indicates that the operating profit margin is expected to improve slightly to 9.6% in 2024, compared to 9.4% in 2023 [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of valuation metrics, with PetroChina's EV/EBITDA at 6.68, which is lower than its peers, indicating potential undervaluation [1][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for PetroChina is projected at 10.89 for 2024, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to industry standards [6]. Market Position - PetroChina is recognized as the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China, aiming to strengthen its position as a competitive international energy company [3]. - The company is also noted for its significant market capitalization of 1,880 billion RMB, reflecting its dominant position in the industry [4].