三大航2024年一季报点评：南航已率先实现盈利；2024年国内航线市场票价压力仍存

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, with target prices adjusted to 6.7 CNY, 4.3 CNY, and 8.5 CNY respectively [3][5]. Core Insights - China Southern Airlines has achieved profitability in Q1 2024, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines have significantly reduced their losses. The revenues for Q1 2024 were 446 billion CNY for China Southern, 401 billion CNY for Air China, and 332 billion CNY for China Eastern, reflecting year-on-year increases of 31%, 60%, and 49% respectively [2][3]. - The domestic market is expected to see a marginal alleviation of oversupply in 2024, but price pressures will persist. The ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for Q1 2024 increased by 30% for Air China, 13% for China Southern, and 17% for China Eastern compared to the previous year [2]. - The cost structure for airlines remains under pressure due to high oil prices, with unit costs per seat kilometer decreasing year-on-year but still elevated compared to 2019 levels. The report anticipates that oil prices will remain high, continuing to exert pressure on airline costs [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - China Southern Airlines reported a net profit of 7.6 billion CNY in Q1 2024, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines reported net losses of 16.7 billion CNY and 8.0 billion CNY respectively. The reduction in losses for Air China and China Eastern was attributed to operational improvements and scale effects [2][3]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 56 billion CNY, 47 billion CNY, and 54 billion CNY for China Southern, China Eastern, and Air China respectively [3][5]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic market's supply-demand imbalance is expected to improve slightly in 2024, with a potential for moderate fare increases as wide-body aircraft return to international routes [2][3]. - Despite the anticipated improvements, the report warns that the domestic market may still face pricing pressures compared to 2019 levels due to incomplete recovery in international routes [2]. Cost Analysis - The unit costs per seat kilometer for Q1 2024 were reported as 0.44 CNY for China Southern, 0.45 CNY for Air China, and 0.43 CNY for China Eastern, showing year-on-year decreases but increases compared to 2019 [2][3].