Aier(300015) 海通证券·2024-05-07 03:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved high growth recovery in 2023, with continued margin improvement in Q1 2024 [3] - Revenue in 2023 reached RMB 20.367 billion (+26.43%), with a gross margin of 50.79% (+0.33pt) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.359 billion (+33.07%) [3] - Q1 2024 revenue was RMB 5.196 billion (+3.50%), with a gross margin of 48.29% (+0.80pt) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 899 million (+15.16%) [3] - The "1+8+N" strategy is steadily progressing, with 256 hospitals and 183 clinics in China, and 131 ophthalmic centers and clinics overseas [3] - The company's technological innovation and international collaboration are strengthening, with 4 new key platforms approved and 69 vertical projects [6] Business Performance - Outpatient visits in 2023 reached 15.1064 million (+34.26%), and surgeries reached 1.1837 million (+35.95%) [4] - Refractive surgery revenue was RMB 7.431 billion (+17.27%), with a gross margin of 57.40% (+0.58pt) [4] - Optometry business revenue was RMB 4.960 billion (+31.25%), with a gross margin of 57.05% (+0.61pt) [4] - Cataract surgery revenue was RMB 3.327 billion (+55.24%), with a gross margin of 37.97% (+2.63pt) [4] - Anterior segment surgery revenue was RMB 1.791 billion (+33.74%), with a gross margin of 45.68% (+1.22pt) [4] - Posterior segment surgery revenue was RMB 1.386 billion (+31.31%), with a gross margin of 34.67% (+1.06pt) [4] Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 23.907 billion (+17.4%) in 2024, RMB 28.837 billion (+20.6%) in 2025, and RMB 34.552 billion (+19.8%) in 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 4.124 billion (+22.8%) in 2024, RMB 4.988 billion (+21.0%) in 2025, and RMB 6.091 billion (+22.1%) in 2026 [4] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 50.4%-50.8% from 2024 to 2026 [4] Valuation - The DCF valuation suggests a fair value range of RMB 174.3-192.5 billion, with a per-share value of RMB 18.69-20.64, corresponding to a 2024 PE multiple of 42-47x [6] - The company's 2024 PE multiple is higher than the average of 30x for comparable companies, reflecting its strong growth potential and competitive advantages [6] Strategic Development - The company is expanding its regional medical network through new constructions and acquisitions, with key centers in Changsha, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing already operational [3] - International expansion continues, with 131 ophthalmic centers and clinics overseas, forming a global medical service network [3]