业绩增长符合预期，提质增效重视回报

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH) with a target price of Rmb8.54, compared to the current price of Rmb6.86 [3] Core Views - The company's performance growth in 2023 was in line with expectations, with revenue of Rmb344.5 billion (-6.33% YoY) and net profit attributable to the parent company of Rmb11.944 billion (-1.99% YoY) [4] - In Q4 2023, revenue was Rmb89.484 billion (+5.08% QoQ, -0.05% YoY), and net profit was Rmb3.594 billion (-5.37% QoQ, +31.99% YoY) [4] - In Q1 2024, revenue was Rmb80.814 billion (-9.69% QoQ, +2.81% YoY), and net profit was Rmb1.926 billion (-46.41% QoQ, +4.39% YoY) [4] Financial Performance - The company achieved steel sales of 51.9 million tons in 2023, a 4.3% YoY increase, with a gross profit per ton of steel of Rmb206 (+2.34% YoY) [12] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved cost reductions of Rmb2.24 billion, supporting its outperformance in the industry [12] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of Rmb0.20 per share for the second half of 2023, with a total expected dividend of Rmb6.781 billion, accounting for 56.77% of the net profit attributable to the parent company [13] Strategic Goals for 2024 - The company aims to achieve "No. 1 in business performance in China" with specific targets including "1+1+N" product sales of 30 million tons, export sales ratio of over 10%, and cost reductions of over Rmb3 billion [14] - The company plans to produce 49.06 million tons of iron, 51.5 million tons of steel, and 52.22 million tons of commodity billets in 2024, with a total operating income of Rmb330.2 billion and operating costs of Rmb303.4 billion [14] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be Rmb0.61, Rmb0.66, and Rmb0.70 respectively, with a 14x PE valuation for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value of Rmb8.54 [15] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 4% in 2024, 2% in 2025, and 2% in 2026, with net profit growth of 12%, 9%, and 6% respectively [4]