FIBOCOM(300638) CHINA DRAGON SECURITIES·2024-05-08 05:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.5x, 15.0x, and 12.5x for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [5] Core Views - The company achieved robust revenue growth of 36.65% YoY in 2023, reaching RMB 7.716 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 54.47% YoY to RMB 564 million [11] - In Q1 2024, the company maintained strong performance with revenue growth of 17.11% YoY to RMB 2.123 billion and net profit growth of 33.78% YoY to RMB 188 million [11] - The company has established a strong market position in vertical sectors such as automotive, FWA, and PC, with IOT wireless communication applications achieving a gross margin of 23.20% in 2023, up 3.12 percentage points YoY [11] - R&D investment accounted for 9.28% of revenue in 2023, supporting the company's technological innovation and product development [11] Financial Projections Income Statement - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5.646 billion in 2022A to RMB 13.486 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 24.3% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 364 million in 2022A to RMB 1.061 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 30.7% [6] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 0.48 in 2022A to RMB 1.39 in 2026E [6] Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to increase from RMB 6.399 billion in 2022A to RMB 9.221 billion in 2026E [7] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decline from 62.1% in 2022A to 45.2% in 2026E, indicating improving financial health [20] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow is forecasted to grow significantly from RMB 300 million in 2022A to RMB 1.318 billion in 2026E [20] - Free cash flow is expected to turn positive in 2026E, reaching RMB 645 million [20] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decline from 36.4x in 2022A to 12.5x in 2026E, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [6] - EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 28.4x in 2022A to 9.3x in 2026E [20] Profitability and Efficiency - ROE is forecasted to improve from 15.0% in 2022A to 21.7% in 2026E [6] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 23.9% from 2024E to 2026E [20] - Asset turnover ratio is projected to increase from 1.1x in 2022A to 1.5x in 2026E, indicating improving asset utilization efficiency [20]