销量高增，盈利企稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhongfu Shenying (688295 SH) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 2 26 billion yuan in 2023 with a YoY growth of 13 3% but saw a significant decline in net profit attributable to the parent company by 47 5% [1] - In Q1 2024 the company reported revenue of 448 million yuan a YoY decrease of 21 1% and net profit attributable to the parent company of 42 million yuan a YoY drop of 68 1% [1] - The company's carbon fiber production reached 19 800 tons in 2023 with a YoY increase of 86 2% and sales volume reached 18 000 tons with a YoY growth of 92 4% [1] - The average price of carbon fiber in 2023 was 124 000 yuan per ton a YoY decrease of 41 1% while the Q1 2024 average price was 95 000 yuan per ton remaining stable compared to Q4 2023 [1] - The company's cost per ton decreased by 21 2% in 2023 due to economies of scale and is expected to continue declining [1] - The company has a total production capacity of 28 500 tons with the Lianyungang 30 000-ton project progressing steadily and expected to start trial production by the end of 2024 [1] - The company holds a leading position in the domestic market with a market share of over 50% in T700 grade and above products and 80% in the hydrogen storage tank sector [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 2 519 million yuan in 2024E to 4 085 million yuan in 2026E with a CAGR of 23 2% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 232 million yuan in 2024E to 759 million yuan in 2026E with a CAGR of 35 4% [1] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 28 1% in 2024E to 38 8% in 2026E [6] - ROE is expected to rise from 4 7% in 2024E to 13 0% in 2026E [6] Industry and Competitive Position - The company is a leader in small and medium tow carbon fiber in China with significant scale and cost advantages [1] - It has a diversified product portfolio covering 1K-48K specifications and can flexibly adjust production lines to meet market demand [1] - The company has a strong presence in strategic emerging fields such as hydrogen storage tanks and carbon carbon composites [1]