产品结构升级延续，成本回落红利释放

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-B" [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.597 billion yuan, an increase of 10.06% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to high base effects leading to short-term sales pressure, but the product structure upgrade continues to enhance profitability [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved cost conditions and a favorable sales environment in the second half of 2024, driven by events like the UEFA European Championship and the Olympics [4]. Revenue Analysis - In Q1 2024, the company's beer sales volume was 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-on-year, with an average price per ton of 4,647.44 yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year [2]. - The Qingdao brand achieved a sales volume of 1.322 million kiloliters, a decrease of 5.64% year-on-year, while other brands saw a decline of 10.40% [2]. - The mid-to-high-end brand sales volume was 960,000 kiloliters, down 2.44% year-on-year, but its market share increased by 2.31 percentage points to 43.96% [2]. Profit Analysis - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 40.44% in Q1 2024, an increase of 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades and lower raw material costs [3]. - The cost per ton decreased by 0.96% year-on-year, while the operating expense ratio was 15.01%, down 0.96 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 15.74%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Outlook for 2024 - The company anticipates good sales growth in the second half of 2024 due to seasonal demand and low base effects [4]. - The cancellation of double-reverse policies on barley is expected to improve raw material costs, alongside declining prices for packaging materials [4]. - The ongoing recovery in dining and tourism sectors is likely to support the high-end product mix and profit elasticity [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 35.424 billion yuan, 36.946 billion yuan, and 38.474 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.1% respectively [4]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 4.943 billion yuan, 5.618 billion yuan, and 6.325 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.8%, 13.7%, and 12.6% respectively [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 to 2026 are 3.62 yuan, 4.12 yuan, and 4.64 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 23.9x, 21.0x, and 18.7x [4].