Workflow
拥抱持续优异的表现
GCTGigaCloud(GCT) 招银国际·2024-05-13 06:24

Investment Rating - Maintain Buy rating with a target price of 46basedonSOTPvaluation[2][12]CoreViewsGigaCloud(GCTUS)deliveredastrongQ12024performancewithrevenuegrowthof9646 based on SOTP valuation [2][12] Core Views - GigaCloud (GCT US) delivered a strong Q1 2024 performance with revenue growth of 96% YoY, beating expectations by 3% [2] - Net profit in Q1 2024 was 27 million, up 71% YoY but 10% below expectations due to new fulfillment center costs and FX volatility [2] - Management guided Q2 2024E revenue of 265280million,representing7383265-280 million, representing 73-83% YoY growth, with the midpoint 9% above expectations [2] - Positive margin trends expected in 2H24E driven by narrowing NH losses, annual freight contracts, and improved warehouse utilization [2] - BaaS initiative launched in April 2024 is expected to unlock TAM and drive long-term incremental growth [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was 251 million, up 96% YoY, with gross profit of 67millionandnetprofitof67 million and net profit of 27 million [2][7] - FY24E revenue is forecasted at 1.112billion,up581.112 billion, up 58% YoY, with net profit of 116 million [2][10] - FY25E revenue is projected at 1.353billion,up221.353 billion, up 22% YoY, with net profit of 150 million [2][10] - FY26E revenue is estimated at 1.632billion,up211.632 billion, up 21% YoY, with net profit of 188 million [2][10] Operational Highlights - Global fulfillment network expanded to 42 locations covering over 10.5 million square feet, up 169% from March 2023 [2] - Outdoor furniture demand is expected to drive Q2 2024E revenue growth [2] - BaaS program charges a competitive 4% fee compared to the industry standard of 10% [2] Valuation - SOTP valuation based on 18x P/E for 3P business and 16x P/E for 1P business, resulting in a target price of 46[12]DCFvaluationassumesaWACCof15.746 [12] - DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 15.7% and long-term growth rate of 3%, also supporting the 46 target price [13][14] Historical Performance - FY23 revenue grew 44% YoY to 704million,withnetprofitup293704 million, with net profit up 293% YoY to 94 million [10] - FY22 revenue increased 18% YoY to 490million,withnetprofitof490 million, with net profit of 24 million [10] - FY21 revenue was 414million,withnetprofitof414 million, with net profit of 29 million [10]