SJM HOLDINGS(00880) 东吴证券国际·2024-05-13 23:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 was slightly below expectations due to one-time opening costs associated with the Versace hotel, with net revenue reaching HKD 6.92 billion, aligning closely with Bloomberg's consensus estimate of HKD 6.85 billion, and recovering to 68.2% of Q1 2019 levels [2][1] - The company's adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2024 was HKD 860 million, recovering to 80.4% of the same period in 2019, but slightly below the consensus estimate of HKD 910 million due to the one-time opening cost of HKD 58 million for the Versace hotel [2][1] - The "One SJM" strategy has proven effective, with total gaming revenue in Q1 2024 reaching HKD 6.89 billion, recovering to 66.2% of Q1 2019 levels [2][1] - The company aims to maintain a market share target of 5% for the Grand Lisboa, with current market share at 2.0% in Q1 2024, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][1] - Daily operating expenses for Q1 2024 averaged HKD 20.4 million, a 5.5% increase from the previous quarter, primarily due to the one-time opening costs and the addition of 20-30 marketing personnel [2][1] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards to HKD 29.14 billion, HKD 30.68 billion, and HKD 32.04 billion respectively, with adjusted EBITDA forecasts of HKD 4.05 billion, HKD 4.67 billion, and HKD 4.97 billion [2][1] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/EBITDA multiples of 11.3, 9.8, and 9.3 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target price set at HKD 3.6 [2][1]