Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" with a maintained rating [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported an adjusted net profit of 0.30 CNY per ticket, indicating an improvement in profitability [7]. - ZTO Express achieved a revenue of 99.6 billion CNY in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.9%, while the net profit was 14.5 billion CNY, a decrease of 13.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time impact from the sale of Cainiao shares [7][8]. - The company’s package volume reached 7.17 billion pieces in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023A: 38,419 million CNY - 2024E: 44,526 million CNY - 2025E: 50,234 million CNY - 2026E: 56,105 million CNY - The net profit forecasts are: - 2023A: 8,749 million CNY - 2024E: 10,542 million CNY - 2025E: 12,109 million CNY - 2026E: 13,963 million CNY - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 10.76 CNY in 2024 to 17.18 CNY in 2026 [6][8]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The average revenue per ticket for the express business in Q1 2024 was 1.29 CNY, down 3.3% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit per ticket was 0.31 CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year [7]. - The company maintained a healthy profit growth despite a slight decline in market share, focusing on quality and effective competition [7]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was 20 billion CNY, with capital expenditures of 17 billion CNY [7].
中通快递-W：业绩点评：单票调整后净利0.30元，盈利能力提升