Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [1] Core Views - ZTO Express has achieved healthy operations with a further increase in profit market share year-on-year [1] - The company focuses on maintaining a cost reduction strategy within price competition, achieving stable growth in both volume and profit [5][9] - The company has opted not to engage in loss-making businesses, which has led to an increase in profit market share despite a slight decline in volume share [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, ZTO Express reported revenue of 9.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.87%, with core express service revenue reaching 9.24 billion yuan, up 10.15% [4] - The gross profit for Q1 2024 was 3.00 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19%, while the adjusted net profit was 2.22 billion yuan, up 15.85% [4] - The company completed a business volume of 7.171 billion parcels in Q1 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.88%, with a market share of 19.32%, down 4.10 percentage points year-on-year [4] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The adjusted net profit per parcel in Q1 2024 was 0.31 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.73% [5] - The average revenue per parcel (excluding freight forwarding) was 1.36 yuan, down 2.53% year-on-year, while the average cost per parcel was 0.94 yuan, down 5.30% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin (excluding freight forwarding) improved by 2.03 percentage points to 30.62% [5] Strategic Initiatives - ZTO Express is enhancing service quality and product differentiation to break through homogeneous low-price competition [8] - The company has established over 110,000 end-point stores nationwide, which helps reduce delivery costs and improve operational flexibility [9] - The ongoing focus on balancing volume, quality, and profit is expected to support sustainable growth and enhance competitive advantages [9] Earnings Forecast - The projected revenues for ZTO Express from 2024 to 2026 are 42.976 billion yuan, 48.431 billion yuan, and 54.556 billion yuan, respectively [10] - The expected net profits for the same period are 10.077 billion yuan, 11.805 billion yuan, and 14.485 billion yuan, respectively [10] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 13.73, 11.72, and 9.55 [10]
中通快递-W（02057）2024年Q1业绩点评：健康经营，利润市场份额同比进一步提升