CHINT ELECTRICS(601877) 国信证券·2024-05-19 01:32Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a reasonable valuation range of 21.6-23.1 yuan, representing a 4%-9% premium over the current stock price [1][4] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic low-voltage electrical equipment and residential PV system provider, with steady revenue growth but a slight decline in profitability [1] - The low-voltage electrical equipment market is expected to grow steadily, with domestic market size reaching 910 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - Domestic brands are accelerating their replacement of foreign brands, with the company's market share increasing from 12.1% in 2011 to 14.8% in 2022 [1] - The residential PV market is growing steadily, with the company's subsidiary, Chint Aneng, maintaining a leading market share of 29% in 2023 [1] Company Overview - The company was founded in 1997 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2010, with main businesses in low-voltage electrical equipment and PV new energy [9] - The company's low-voltage electrical equipment business has a domestic market share of about 14.8%, making it the largest domestic supplier by sales volume [9] - The company's PV new energy business focuses on residential and centralized PV power station sales and operations, with a residential PV installation market share of nearly 30% in 2023 [9] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 572.5 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [1] - From 2020 to 2023, the company's revenue compound growth rate was 19.9%, while the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -1.1% [1] - In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 15.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% [1] Low-Voltage Electrical Equipment Business - The low-voltage electrical equipment market is expected to grow steadily, with domestic market size reaching 910 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - Domestic brands are accelerating their replacement of foreign brands, with the company's market share increasing from 12.1% in 2011 to 14.8% in 2022 [1] - The company's low-voltage electrical equipment business achieved revenue of 20.14 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, accounting for 35.2% of total revenue [16] Residential PV Business - The residential PV market is growing steadily, with the company's subsidiary, Chint Aneng, maintaining a leading market share of 29% in 2023 [1] - The company's PV business achieved revenue of 36.6 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 42.7%, accounting for 63.9% of total revenue [16] - The company's PV business contributed 6.75 billion yuan in gross profit in 2023, accounting for 54.4% of total gross profit [16] Global Expansion - The company has established a global business architecture system with regional headquarters and localized subsidiaries as the core [46] - As of the end of 2023, the company's overseas subsidiaries had accumulated more than 30 localized companies, with over 2,000 active channels and project customers globally [46] - In 2023, the company's overseas subsidiary, Chint International, achieved revenue of 4.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [47] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 70.63 billion yuan, 75.14 billion yuan, and 79.11 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.4%, 6.4%, and 5.3% [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.72 billion yuan, 5.39 billion yuan, and 5.64 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.2%, 14.1%, and 4.6% [1]