山东出版：探寻出版龙头的确定性、超预期和创新点

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Shandong Publishing (601019 SH) with a target price of 14 29 yuan per share based on a 2024 PE multiple of 18x [4] Core Views - Shandong Publishing's Q1 2024 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 2 47 billion yuan up 13 38% YoY though net profit fell 1 10% due to the expiration of tax incentives [2] - The company's core textbook and supplementary materials business is growing steadily supported by Shandong's large student population and ample education funding [2] - Shandong Publishing has a leading dividend yield of 4 71% among A-share state-owned publishing companies with cash dividends increasing annually since its IPO [2] - The company's innovative study travel and cultural tourism business is accelerating with revenue surging over 4x YoY to over 300 million yuan in 2023 [2] Business Segments Textbook and Supplementary Materials - Shandong Publishing is the exclusive distributor of free textbooks and recommended supplementary materials in Shandong province benefiting from the region's large K-12 student population [2] - The company's textbook publishing revenue grew at a 10 30% CAGR from 2017 to 2023 while distribution revenue grew at an 8 12% CAGR over the same period [18] - Shandong's K-12 student population is expected to grow through 2025 before a slight decline in 2026 supporting continued growth in the textbook business [22] General Books - The general book publishing and distribution business has been under pressure with revenue declining at a 4 69% and 4 07% CAGR respectively from 2021 to 2023 [30] - Despite industry headwinds Shandong Publishing maintains leading market share and product efficiency in the general book market [32] Study Travel and Cultural Tourism - The company's study travel business has expanded rapidly with over 6000 tours and 700000 participants in 2023 generating over 300 million yuan in revenue [2] - Shandong Publishing has built a comprehensive study travel ecosystem including travel agencies cultural products and camp operations [41] Financial Performance - For 2024-2026 the report forecasts revenue of 13 24 14 12 and 14 78 billion yuan with net profit of 1 66 1 81 and 1 92 billion yuan respectively [2] - The company has a strong cash position with 6 87 billion yuan in cash 1 92 billion yuan in structured deposits and 3 55 billion yuan in time deposits as of end-2023 [2] - Shandong Publishing has consistently increased its cash dividend payout since its IPO with a 2023 dividend yield of 4 71% ranking among the highest in the A-share publishing sector [36]