QFIN(QFIN) 交银国际证券·2024-05-21 07:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for QFIN US, with a target price raised from 25.80, indicating a potential upside of 21.1% from the current price of $21.30 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong profit growth, with a 24.6% year-over-year increase in net profit for Q1 2024, and a 15.4% increase in net revenue, primarily driven by interest income from on-balance-sheet loans and referral service fees [1]. - The report highlights a significant shift towards a light-asset model, which now accounts for 61% of facilitated loans, despite a 9.3% year-over-year decline in facilitated loans [1][4]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a 90-day delinquency rate of 3.35%, reflecting a slight increase over the past two quarters [1]. - The net take rate has improved, reaching 3.5% in Q1 2024, up 60 basis points year-over-year, attributed to better management of early repayment issues and lower funding costs [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the company reported a net income of approximately 1.1 billion RMB, with a guidance for Q2 2024 net profit between 1.17 billion and 1.23 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7.0% to 12.5% [1][3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 17.233 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 5.8% [5]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in facilitated loan growth, projecting a decrease of 3.0% for 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [6][9]. Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected net profit of 4.713 billion RMB for 2024, with a corresponding EPS of 31.0 RMB [3][8]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 5.2 for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [3]. - The net take rate is expected to stabilize around 3.61% for 2024, reflecting ongoing improvements in operational efficiency [6].