PETROCHINA(601857) 国信证券·2024-05-22 10:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the market index by more than 20% over the next 6 to 12 months [8][26]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth of unconventional natural gas in China, with significant increases in production and exploration activities expected in the coming years [30][47]. - Unconventional natural gas, including tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane, is projected to become a crucial component of China's natural gas supply, with its share of total natural gas production rising from 35% in 2018 to 43% [47][60]. - The company has clear plans for its unconventional natural gas business, with substantial resource reserves and ambitious production targets set for 2025 [48]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 173.5 billion, 186.3 billion, and 202.9 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with diluted EPS of 0.95, 1.02, and 1.11 yuan [30][19]. Unconventional Gas Development - The company has significant reserves of unconventional gas resources: 46.7 trillion cubic meters of shale gas, 19.96 trillion cubic meters of tight gas, and 13.4 trillion cubic meters of coalbed methane [48]. - The company aims to triple its unconventional gas production compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with specific targets for tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane production by 2025 [48]. Market Trends - China's natural gas demand is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with consumption projected to reach 4.2 to 4.6 trillion cubic meters by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of around 7% [35][47]. - The report highlights that unconventional natural gas will play a vital role in meeting this demand, as domestic production struggles to keep pace with consumption growth [37][60].