KUAISHOU(01024) 交银国际证券·2024-05-23 05:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 75.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.0% from the current price of HKD 58.15 [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 29.4 billion for Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, which met expectations. The gross margin improved to 55%, with a significant increase in adjusted net profit to RMB 4.4 billion, surpassing market expectations by 37% [2]. - The report highlights continued optimization of cost and expenses, which exceeded expectations, suggesting further potential for profit adjustments [2]. - The company is expected to see a 25% year-on-year growth in e-commerce GMV in Q2 2024, driven by supply-side expansion and increased user purchases [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 113.47 billion in 2023, RMB 127.27 billion in 2024, and RMB 141.48 billion in 2025, with respective growth rates of 20.5%, 12.2%, and 11.2% [3][12]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 18.08 billion in 2024, reflecting a 76% increase from the previous year [2][12]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the company's operating margin, with expectations of continued growth in profitability metrics over the next few years [12]. User Engagement and E-commerce Performance - Total user engagement time increased by 9% year-on-year, with e-commerce GMV growing by 28% compared to the previous year, driven by a 70% increase in active merchants [2][5]. - Online marketing revenue rose by 27%, benefiting from the application of smart marketing solutions and product iterations [2][9]. - The report notes a 50% year-on-year increase in mid-tier streamer support, enhancing operational efficiency despite an 8% decline in live streaming revenue [2][9]. Valuation and Market Position - The report suggests that the valuation is based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2024, with a focus on the mainland business contributing RMB 19.5 billion in profit [2][12]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 208.33 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 69.15 and a low of HKD 39.10 [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing improvement in revenue structure and gross margin, with marketing expense ratios still having room for optimization [2][12].