贝壳：Eyeing on the pace of fundamental recovery post sentiment rebound

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Beike with a target price of US$22.00, down from the previous US$23.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current price of US$18.87 [2][3]. Core Insights - Beike reported a 19$220 million for share repurchase, representing about 1% of the market cap, to enhance shareholder returns [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Beike's existing home transaction GTV fell 32% year-over-year to RMB453 billion, while new home transactions dropped 45% to RMB152 billion, compared to a 50% decline for the top 100 developers [2]. - The company generated RMB2.4 billion in revenue from home renovation and furnishing, marking a 71% year-over-year increase [2]. - Forecasts for Q2 2024 include total GTV of RMB796 billion, up 2% year-over-year, and total revenue of RMB21.5 billion, up 10% year-over-year [2]. Earnings Summary - Revenue projections for Beike are set to increase from RMB77.8 billion in FY23 to RMB90.2 billion in FY24, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15.9% [6]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB6.9 billion in FY24, down from RMB10.8 billion in FY23, indicating a decline of 13.1% [6]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, with adjusted net profit margins stabilizing around 10.4% in FY24 [8]. Market Outlook - Recent policy changes regarding down payment ratios and mortgage interest rates are expected to provide a marginal boost to property sales, although the impact may be less significant than in previous downturns [2]. - The overall property market is projected to show positive signs of recovery in the latter half of 2024, supported by demand-side easing and financing policy implementations [5].