BEKE-贝壳：关注情绪反弹后基本面复苏的步伐

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ke Holdings with a target price adjusted to $22.00 from the previous$ 23.00, reflecting a potential upside of 16.6% from the current price of $18.87 [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in sentiment and a gradual recovery in the fundamentals of Ke Holdings, despite a 19% year-over-year decline in revenue to RMB 16.4 billion in Q1 2024. This decline was less severe than expected, aided by stronger-than-anticipated growth in new business revenues [2][6]. - The existing home transaction (EHT) gross transaction value (GTV) fell by 32% year-over-year to RMB 453 billion, while new home transaction (NHT) GTV dropped 45% to RMB 152 billion. However, the report anticipates a recovery in GTV starting in Q2 2024, driven by supportive policies [2][6]. - New business segments, particularly home renovation and furniture, showed significant growth, with revenues reaching RMB 2.4 billion in Q1 2024, a 71% increase year-over-year. The management expects operational efficiency to improve in 2024, leading to a reduction in net loss margins from -10% in 2023 to -5% in 2024 [2][6]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, total revenue is projected to be RMB 90.2 billion, reflecting a 15.9% year-over-year growth. Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 9.4 billion, with a decrease of 13.1% compared to the previous year [7][9]. - The report outlines a gradual improvement in profitability metrics, with gross profit margins expected to stabilize around 26.1% in FY24E, while operating profit margins are projected at 5.6% [9][10]. - The company has committed to enhancing shareholder returns, having allocated$ 220 million for stock buybacks in Q1 2024, representing approximately 1% of its market capitalization [2][6]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that recent policy changes regarding down payment ratios and mortgage rates may stimulate real estate sales, although challenges remain due to high housing inventory and a long-term demographic outlook that may not support significant price recovery [2][6]. - The anticipated total GMV for Ke Holdings in Q2 2024 is projected at RMB 79.6 billion, with a 2% year-over-year increase, and total revenue expected to reach RMB 21.5 billion, a 10% increase [2][6].