BILIBILI-哔哩哔哩：振兴商业模式；完整的盈亏平衡目标

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $20.50** per ADS, implying a 49.2% upside from the current price [2][5] Core Views - Bilibili reported **Q1 revenue growth of 12% YoY** to RMB 5.67 billion, in line with expectations, while adjusted net loss narrowed by **56% YoY** to RMB 456 million, better than expected due to stronger-than-expected GPM expansion [2] - The company is on track to achieve **non-GAAP operating breakeven in Q3 2024**, supported by robust GPM expansion and efficiency improvements [2][3] - FY24 adjusted net loss forecast has been revised down to **RMB 710 million** from RMB 896 million, reflecting improved operating leverage and efficiency gains [2] Revenue Breakdown - **Advertising revenue** grew **31% YoY** to RMB 1.67 billion in Q1, driven by strong performance-based advertising growth (over 50% YoY). Q2 advertising revenue is expected to grow **27% YoY** [3] - **VAS revenue** increased **17% YoY** to RMB 2.53 billion in Q1, supported by resilient live streaming and innovative VAS services. Q2 VAS revenue is expected to grow **16% YoY** [3] - **Mobile gaming revenue** declined **13% YoY** to RMB 983 million in Q1 but is expected to grow **5% YoY** in Q2, driven by strong performance of legacy games and new game launches [3] User and Ecosystem Growth - Average DAU grew **9% YoY** to 102.4 million in Q1, with average daily time spent increasing **9% YoY** to 105 minutes [3] - Bilibili expanded collaborations with e-commerce platforms, with management expecting **over 30% YoY growth** in total e-commerce advertising budgets during the 618 shopping festival, which is expected to drive Q2 advertising revenue growth [3] Profitability and Margins - Gross margin expanded **6.6 ppts YoY** and **2.2 ppts QoQ** to **28.3%** in Q1, driven by favorable revenue mix shifts and effective cost control. Q2 gross margin is expected to further improve to **29.4%** [3] - Adjusted net loss margin improved **12.5 ppts YoY** to **-7.8%** in Q1, with the company on track to achieve non-GAAP operating breakeven in Q3 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts - FY24 revenue is forecasted at **RMB 25.49 billion**, with gross profit expected to reach **RMB 7.64 billion** (30.0% gross margin). Adjusted net loss is projected at **RMB 710 million** [9] - FY25 revenue is expected to grow to **RMB 27.66 billion**, with gross profit reaching **RMB 8.99 billion** (32.5% gross margin). Adjusted net profit is forecasted at **RMB 1.16 billion** [9] SOTP Valuation - The **SOTP-derived target price of$ 20.50 includes: - Advertising business valued at $8.5 (41.3% of total valuation), based on 15x 2024E PE [11] - **VAS business** valued at$ 7.5 (36.7% of total valuation), based on 2.0x 2024E PS [11] - Mobile gaming business valued at $4.3 (20.8% of total valuation), based on 15x 2024E PE [11] Peer Comparison - Bilibili's valuation multiples are compared to peers in online gaming and advertising, with average PE multiples of 18x for online gaming and 15x for online advertising [12] - In the online video segment, Bilibili's PS multiple is compared to peers like iQiyi and Mango Excellent Media, with average PS multiples of 2.0x for FY24E and 1.8x for FY25E [13]