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唯品会：利润持续改善，加大股东回报
VIPSVipshop(VIPS) 浦银国际证券·2024-05-24 10:01

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Vipshop (VIPS US) with an adjusted target price of 18[1][2]CoreViews−Vipshop′sQ12024revenuewasRMB276billionflatYoYslightlybelowmarketexpectationsby0918 [1][2] Core Views - Vipshop's Q1 2024 revenue was RMB 27 6 billion flat YoY slightly below market expectations by 0 9% but within the guidance range of RMB 27 5-28 9 billion [1] - Q1 2024 GMV grew 8 0% YoY to RMB 52 4 billion while order volume declined 3 2% to 180 million and active buyers decreased 1 4% to 43 1 million [1] - The apparel category showed strong performance with double-digit GMV growth and active SVIP members increased 11% YoY contributing 45% of online consumption [1] - Gross margin remained high at 23 7% up 2 3pp YoY and flat QoQ while adjusted net profit grew 24 8% YoY to RMB 2 58 billion exceeding market expectations by 15 1% [1] - Adjusted net margin reached a historical high of 9 3% up 1 8pp YoY and 0 1pp QoQ [1] - The company provided a cautious Q2 2024 revenue guidance of RMB 26 5-27 9 billion representing a YoY decline of 5% to 0% due to seasonal demand slowdown and intensified competition [1] - Vipshop plans to complete the remaining 500 million share repurchase within the year and allocate over 75% of its 2024 adjusted net profit for buybacks or dividends [1] - Full-year 2024 revenue is expected to remain flat with adjusted net margin projected to improve to 8 6% driven by operational efficiency [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to be RMB 112 696 billion in FY24E slightly down from RMB 112 856 billion in FY23 [2] - Operating profit is expected to increase to RMB 26 263 billion in FY24E from RMB 25 721 billion in FY23 [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to grow to RMB 9 661 billion in FY24E from RMB 9 510 billion in FY23 [2] - The target PE ratio for FY24E is 7 5x [2] Market Data - The current stock price is 1652witha52−weekrangeof16 52 with a 52-week range of 13 8-20 19 [3] - The target price of 18impliesapotentialupsideof918 implies a potential upside of 9% [3] - The company has a market capitalization of 8 959 billion and a 3-month average daily trading volume of $74 2 million [3]