桐昆股份：印尼炼厂规模拟调整，公司持股比例拟上升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Stock (601233) with a target price of 15.53 RMB [4] Core Views - The Indonesian refinery project's equity structure is being adjusted, with Tongkun's stake increasing from 45.9% to 80%, enhancing control and reducing operational risks [1] - The refinery's scale is reduced from 16 million tons/year to 10 million tons/year, with a shift in product focus towards more olefins and less aromatics [2] - The product market strategy is adjusted to focus more on the Indonesian domestic market, reducing logistics costs and enhancing competitiveness [2] - The company's net profit is forecasted to be 3 billion, 4.76 billion, and 6.03 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a PE ratio of 13, 8, and 6 for the corresponding years [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 61.99 billion RMB in 2022 to 119.84 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.5% [3] - EBITDA is projected to increase from 4.67 billion RMB in 2022 to 13.20 billion RMB in 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 130.21 million RMB in 2022 to 6.03 billion RMB in 2026 [3] - EPS is expected to grow from 0.05 RMB in 2022 to 2.50 RMB in 2026 [3] Market and Product Strategy - The refinery's product mix is adjusted to focus more on olefins, with ethylene production increasing from 800,000 tons/year to 1.2 million tons/year [2] - The target market for products shifts from 33% Indonesia, 59% China, and 8% shared to 60% Indonesia, 22% China, and 18% shared [2] - The total investment for the project is reduced from 86.24 billion USD to 59.48 billion USD [2] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 287.57 in 2022 to 6.21 in 2026 [3] - The PB ratio is projected to decline from 1.08 in 2022 to 0.76 in 2026 [3] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to drop from 12.45 in 2022 to 3.01 in 2026 [3] Industry Context - The report covers the oil, petrochemical refining, and trading industry, with a focus on the recovery of the polyester filament and petrochemical sectors [4]