KUAISHOU(01024) 东方证券·2024-05-26 10:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 73.82 HKD per share, based on a 17x PE valuation for 2024 [7][14]. Core Insights - User growth remains healthy with 1Q24 DAU increasing by 5.2% year-over-year to 394 million and MAU up by 6.6% to 697 million. Average daily usage time per user is 129.5 minutes, a 2.1% increase year-over-year [1]. - Advertising revenue in 1Q24 grew by 27.4% year-over-year to 16.7 billion CNY, accounting for 56.6% of total revenue, with a significant increase in active marketing clients [1]. - E-commerce GMV increased by 28.2% year-over-year to 288.1 billion CNY, driven by a rich supply and the development of a broad shelf scenario [2]. - Live streaming revenue decreased by 8% year-over-year to 8.6 billion CNY, aligning with expectations due to ecosystem governance [2]. - Adjusted net profit for 1Q24 reached 4.4 billion CNY, exceeding expectations, with a gross margin of 54.8% [2]. User Growth and Engagement - 1Q24 saw a year-over-year increase in DAU of 5.2% to 394 million and MAU of 6.6% to 697 million. The average daily usage time per user was 129.5 minutes, reflecting a 2.1% increase year-over-year [1]. - The total user engagement time grew by 8.6% year-over-year, supported by improved channel structure and algorithm enhancements [1]. Advertising Performance - Advertising revenue in 1Q24 was 16.7 billion CNY, a 27.4% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - The number of active marketing clients increased by 90% year-over-year, with internal advertising growth outpacing e-commerce GMV growth [1]. E-commerce Development - E-commerce GMV rose by 28.2% year-over-year to 288.1 billion CNY, with other business revenue (primarily e-commerce commissions) increasing by 47.6% to 4.2 billion CNY [2]. - The number of monthly active paying users in e-commerce grew by 22.4% year-over-year to 126 million, with a penetration rate of 18.1% [2]. Live Streaming Revenue - Live streaming revenue in 1Q24 decreased by 8% year-over-year to 8.6 billion CNY, primarily due to governance measures within the live streaming ecosystem [2]. Profitability and Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for 1Q24 was 4.4 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 54.8%, which is higher than the expected 52.6% [2]. - The report anticipates an adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion CNY for 2Q24, with significant improvements in cost management [2]. Share Buyback Plan - The company announced a share buyback plan of up to 16 billion HKD over the next three years, with 3.09 billion HKD already utilized to repurchase shares [3]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 17.17 billion CNY, 25.07 billion CNY, and 32.24 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an upward revision due to better-than-expected profit performance in 1Q24 [9].