JA SOLAR(002459) 海通证券·2024-05-28 04:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][4][13] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2023, with operating income reaching 81.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.74%, and a net profit of 7.039 billion yuan, up 27.21% year-on-year. However, Q1 2024 saw a decline in revenue to 15.971 billion yuan, down 22.02% year-on-year, and a net loss of 483 million yuan, a decrease of 118.70% year-on-year [3][5][9] - The company has a high proportion of overseas and N-type product shipments, with Q1 2024 showing 62% of battery module shipments going overseas and 46.6% being N-type components. The shipment target for Q2 2024 is set between 20-23 GW, with N-type products expected to account for around 70% [3][4] - The company is actively expanding its N-type battery production capacity, with a total of 57 GW of N-type battery projects being put into operation. By the end of 2023, the total module capacity reached 95 GW, with plans for further capacity integration in 2024 [4][6] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported operating income of 81.556 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.039 billion yuan. The projected operating income for 2024 is 89.813 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 3.197 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 54.6% year-on-year [5][9] - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 18.1%, expected to decrease to 13.6% in 2024, and then slightly recover to 14.4% by 2026 [5][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 2.13 yuan, projected to drop to 0.97 yuan in 2024, before rising to 1.93 yuan by 2026 [5][9] Business Segmentation - The solar module segment is expected to generate revenues of 85.586 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 13.55%. Other business segments are projected to grow at a rate of 25% annually [6][7] - The company aims for a total module shipment of 85-95 GW from 2024 to 2026, with a focus on maintaining profitability and cash flow [4][6] Valuation - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17-19 times for 2024, leading to a reasonable valuation range of 16.42 to 18.35 yuan per share [4][8]