BILIBILI(BILI) 申万宏源研究·2024-05-28 07:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI:US) [1][4] Core Views - Bilibili's Q1 2024 revenue reached 5.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations, marking a return to double-digit growth since Q4 2022 [2][5] - The adjusted net loss for Q1 2024 was 440 million RMB, better than the expected 500 million RMB, with the loss rate narrowing to 8% [2][3] - User metrics show healthy growth, with MAU reaching 342 million, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and DAU at 102 million, up 9% year-on-year [3] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected as follows: - 2024E: 25,253 - 2025E: 28,139 - 2026E: 31,439 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 12.1% in 2024, 11.4% in 2025, and 11.7% in 2026 [2][4] - Non-GAAP net profit (in million RMB) forecasts are: - 2024E: -415 - 2025E: 1,028 - 2026E: 1,882 - Non-GAAP EPS (in RMB) is expected to improve from -0.98 in 2024 to 4.47 in 2026 [2][4] Business Segments - Advertising revenue for Q1 2024 was 1.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 31%, driven by product optimization and efficiency improvements [3] - Value-added services revenue reached 2.5 billion RMB, a 17% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by live streaming [3] - Gaming revenue for Q1 2024 was 1 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 13%, with new product launches expected to boost performance in Q2 [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - Gross margin improved to 28% in Q1 2024, marking seven consecutive quarters of sequential improvement [3] - Operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was 640 million RMB, achieving positive cash flow for three consecutive quarters [3]