Vipshop-唯品会：2024Q1财报点评：公司持续释放利润，股东回报率不断提升

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating with a target price range of $22-24, implying an upside potential of 33%-48% [2][7] Core Views - Revenue growth remains under pressure due to weak demand and intensified competition, with Q1 revenue at RMB 27.6 billion, up 0.4% YoY [1][5] - Profitability continues to improve, with Q1 Non-GAAP net profit reaching RMB 2.6 billion, up 24% YoY, and net margin increasing to 9.3% from 7.5% [1][5] - SuperVIP members grew 11% YoY, contributing 45% of online transaction value in Q1 [1][5] - Shareholder returns are expected to exceed 11% in 2024, with RMB 7.2 billion allocated for share buybacks and dividends [2][5] Financial Performance - Q1 GMV increased 8% YoY to RMB 52.4 billion, with active buyers declining 2% YoY to 43.1 million [1][5] - Product revenue declined 0.3% YoY to RMB 25.8 billion, while other revenue grew 13% YoY to RMB 1.8 billion, driven by the Outlets business [1][5] - Gross margin improved by 2 percentage points, with sales and management expense ratios decreasing by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively [1][5] Forecasts and Valuation - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts adjusted to RMB 113.7/120.7/128.1 billion, down 3.6% each year [2][7] - 2024-2026 adjusted net profit forecasts raised to RMB 9.6/10.6/10.8 billion, up 0.9%/0.8%/0.3% [2][7] - Current valuation at 7x 2024 PE, with 6% CAGR for revenue and adjusted net profit from 2024-2026 [2][7] Shareholder Returns - Q1 share buyback of$ 11.9 million, with $536 million remaining in the buyback program valid until March 31, 2025 [2][5] - Management plans to complete the remaining buyback by end-2024 and allocate at least 75% of 2024 Non-GAAP net profit for buybacks and dividends [2][5]