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百胜中国:公司季报点评:1Q24收入增1%,同店恢复度环比提升
09987YUM CHINA(09987) 海通证券·2024-05-29 01:01

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [8] Core Views - The company reported a 1% revenue increase in Q1 2024, with same-store sales recovering to approximately 90% of 2019 levels [8][10] - The company plans to open approximately 1,500 to 1,700 new stores in 2024 and aims for capital expenditures of around 700millionto700 million to 850 million [10] - The company is increasing its stock buyback and dividend payouts, returning about 1.5billiontoshareholders[10]SummarybySectionsFinancialPerformanceInQ12024,thecompanyachievedrevenueof1.5 billion to shareholders [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.96 billion, a 1% year-over-year increase (7% increase when excluding foreign exchange effects) [2] - Adjusted operating profit was 374million,down11374 million, down 11% year-over-year, while adjusted net profit was 287 million, down 2% year-over-year [2] - The operating margin was 12.6%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-over-year [2] Store Expansion and Performance - As of Q1 2024, the total number of restaurants reached 15,022, with a net increase of 378 restaurants, marking a record for the first quarter [8] - The profit margin for restaurants was 17.6%, down 2.7 percentage points year-over-year [8] Cost Structure - In Q1 2024, raw materials and consumables increased by 7.3% to 900million,accountingfor32.1900 million, accounting for 32.1% of revenue [8] - Employee costs rose by 3.7% to 710 million, making up 25.4% of revenue [8] - Management expenses decreased by 8.5% to 140million,representing4.7140 million, representing 4.7% of revenue [8] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 11.589 billion, 12.388billion,and12.388 billion, and 13.225 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 5.6%, 6.9%, and 6.8% respectively [9][10] - Net profit projections for the same period are 873million,873 million, 935 million, and 1.017billion,withcorrespondinggrowthratesof5.61.017 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 5.6%, 7.0%, and 8.8% [10] Valuation - The estimated fair value per share is between 44.9 and $56.1, corresponding to a price range of HKD 350.5 to HKD 438.2 based on a PE ratio of 20-25 for 2024 [10][15]