快手-W：电商持续增长，利润加速释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of 80 HKD, corresponding to a 15x P/E for 2025 estimates [2][7]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's revenue for Q1 2024 reached 29.4 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year growth of 17%. The breakdown includes advertising revenue of 16.7 billion CNY (up 27%), live streaming revenue of 8.6 billion CNY (down 8%), and e-commerce revenue of 4.2 billion CNY (up 48%) [1][2]. - The company's Q1 gross margin improved to 54.8%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points year-over-year. Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 4.39 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit margin of 14.9%, up 14.7 percentage points year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [1][2]. - Daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) for Q1 were 394 million and 697 million, respectively, showing year-over-year growth of 5.2% and 6.6% [1]. Revenue Breakdown E-commerce - Q1 e-commerce GMV reached 288.1 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 28%. The average monthly number of buyers was 126 million, up 22.4% year-over-year. The number of active merchants increased by over 70% year-over-year [1][2]. - The share of general merchandise in total GMV was 25% in Q1, with a 98% year-over-year increase in order volume during the New Year Festival [1]. Advertising - Q1 advertising revenue grew by 27% year-over-year, accounting for 56.6% of total revenue. The number of active marketing clients increased by 90% year-over-year [1][2]. - The average advertising revenue per DAU rose by 21% to 42.3 CNY [1]. Live Streaming - Live streaming revenue faced a decline due to ongoing content ecosystem governance, with expectations for continued pressure on growth in the short term [2]. AI and Innovation - Kuaishou is leveraging AI to enhance its business, with significant improvements in smart marketing solutions and user engagement through AI-driven interactions [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are estimated at 125.8 billion CNY for 2024, 141.7 billion CNY for 2025, and 155.7 billion CNY for 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 11%, 13%, and 10%, respectively [2][5][6]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to reach 17 billion CNY in 2024, 21.8 billion CNY in 2025, and 28.3 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 65%, 29%, and 30% [2][5][6].