三诺生物：深度研究报告：CGM大有可为

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating an expected relative change in the benchmark index between -10% and 10% over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic player in blood glucose monitoring (BGM) with a market share of 36% in China, and its blood glucose monitoring business has seen rapid growth, with revenues exceeding 2 billion yuan in 2022 and projected to reach 2.87 billion yuan in 2023 after consolidating Trividia [1][11]. - The continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) market is expected to provide new growth opportunities for the company, with the global CGM market projected to reach 36.5 billion USD by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 20.3% from 2020 to 2030 [41][55]. - The company has made significant investments in research and development, launching the world's first third-generation CGM product, which offers improved accuracy and stability [6][9]. Summary by Sections Blood Glucose Monitoring (BGM) Business - The BGM business is expected to maintain steady growth due to increasing penetration rates and domestic production rates, with projected growth rates of 10%, 10%, and 9% from 2024 to 2026 [11]. - The company has a strong market position, with a 36% market share in the domestic blood glucose monitoring market, and is expected to benefit from the ongoing increase in diabetes prevalence in China [1][25]. Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Development - The company launched its first third-generation CGM product in March 2023, which utilizes advanced sensor technology for better performance [6]. - The CGM market is rapidly expanding, with significant growth in sales for competitors like Abbott and Dexcom, indicating a robust market environment for CGM products [41]. Market Potential and Trends - The diabetes population is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that the number of diabetes patients in China will reach 144 million by 2030 [55]. - The report highlights the low penetration of blood glucose monitoring devices in China compared to developed countries, suggesting substantial growth potential in the domestic market [25][37]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue from blood glucose monitoring is projected to grow from 2 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.87 billion yuan in 2023, following the consolidation of Trividia [1][11]. - The overall gross margin for the blood glucose monitoring business has seen a decline due to the consolidation of Trividia, but is expected to improve as operations stabilize [34].