CSN(600029) 群益证券·2024-05-30 03:31Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [4][7]. Core Views - The company has successfully turned a profit in Q1 2024, with a net profit of 550 million RMB, marking a significant recovery from a net loss of 4.21 billion RMB in 2023 [4][5]. - The recovery of international routes is expected to enhance the company's profitability, with international route ASK and RPK showing year-on-year growth of 226% and 261%, respectively [5][4]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.3 billion RMB, 8.8 billion RMB, and 10.5 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65% and 18% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the transportation industry, specifically in air travel, with a focus on passenger and cargo services [2]. - As of May 29, 2024, the A-share price was 5.92 RMB, with a target price of 7.0 RMB, indicating a potential upside [2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net loss of 4.21 billion RMB, primarily due to low international route recovery and high oil prices [4][5]. - The company’s unit cost per ton-kilometer increased by 11.1% compared to 2019, while gross profit per ton-kilometer was only 62.5% of the 2019 level [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the international route recovery will continue, with expectations for the company to restore 80% of its international routes by the summer and autumn of 2024 [5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.29 RMB, 0.48 RMB, and 0.58 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][5].