Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company with a target price of 149.72 [2][3] Core Views - The domestic business is in a positive cycle, with strong growth in online retail and e-commerce sales in Q1, driven by low-price positioning and efficient operations [1] - The overseas business, particularly Temu, continues to grow, with global sales increasing sequentially and significant progress in reducing losses [9] - The company's advertising efficiency gives it an advantage over competitors, and the competitive landscape in the grocery business is easing, driving both average order value and profitability [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to reach 4,582/6,221/7,681 billion yuan, with operating profits of 1,352/1,856/2,334 billion yuan [2] - Non-GAAP EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 96.2/131.8/165.3 yuan per ADS [2] - Q1 2024 revenue reached 868.12 billion yuan, a 131% YoY increase, with online marketing services contributing 424.56 billion yuan (+56% YoY) and transaction services contributing 443.56 billion yuan (+327% YoY) [36] - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was 259.75 billion yuan, a 275% YoY increase, with an operating margin of 29.9% and an adjusted operating margin of 32.9% [36] - Net profit for Q1 2024 was 279.98 billion yuan, a 246% YoY increase, with a net margin of 32.3% [36] Operational Highlights - The company's cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments stood at 2,421 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2024, with 555.92 billion yuan in cash and equivalents [36] - Operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was 210.67 billion yuan [36] - Marketing expenses in Q1 2024 were 234.11 billion yuan, accounting for 27.0% of revenue, marking a decline for the fifth consecutive quarter [36] - R&D expenses in Q1 2024 were 29.10 billion yuan, a 16% YoY increase, accounting for 3.4% of revenue [36] Industry and Competitive Position - The domestic e-commerce industry remains challenging due to intense competition and market saturation, but the company maintains a leading position in its core business [1] - The overseas business, particularly Temu, is showing strong growth, with efforts to optimize logistics and reduce costs, including increasing the proportion of sea freight [9] Valuation and Forecasts - The company's enterprise value is estimated at 3,034.806 billion yuan, with a market capitalization of 3,152.170 billion yuan [29] - The target price of $211.80 is based on a 20% discount rate and reflects strong growth prospects in both domestic and international markets [29]
拼多多：国内业务保持正循环，海外业务持续“破风”