DHE(002221) 海通证券·2024-06-03 05:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [19][21]. Core Views - The company is focusing on carbon fiber as a core new material production capability, collaborating with Shandong University for research and development [21]. - The commencement of the 10,000-ton carbon fiber project is a critical step for the company to transition from propane dehydrogenation to high-performance polymer composite materials [21]. - The project is expected to have a total investment of approximately 3.5 billion yuan, with the first phase expected to be operational in the first half of 2025 [11][21]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 281 million yuan, 501 million yuan, and 1.056 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.18, 0.32, and 0.67 yuan [23]. - The estimated P/B ratio for 2023 is between 1.8 and 1.9, leading to a reasonable value range of 12.49 to 13.19 yuan [19][23]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of 8.8% by 2026, up from 5.6% in 2023 [29]. Comparable Company Analysis - The report includes a comparison of the company's earnings and valuation metrics with peers, indicating an average P/E ratio of 25.31 for comparable companies [2]. - The average P/B ratio for comparable companies is 3.08, suggesting that the company is positioned competitively within its sector [2]. Project Details - The carbon fiber project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase including the establishment of two spinning lines and two carbonization lines, achieving an annual capacity of 4,800 tons of high-performance carbon fiber [11][21]. - The second phase will further enhance capacity to 8,000 tons of high-performance carbon fiber and 23,840 tons of polyacrylonitrile powder [11]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 9.04 yuan, with a 52-week price fluctuation between 8.12 and 11.42 yuan [11]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 14.248 billion yuan [11]. Operational Efficiency - The company is utilizing advanced technology for its carbon fiber project, which includes water-phase precipitation polymerization and dry-jet wet spinning, ensuring low production costs and strong market competitiveness [28].