宏观·周度报告：国内PMI边际放缓，美国经济和通胀双双下修

Group 1: Domestic Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for May dropped to 49.5, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, marking the largest decline in nearly a decade[4] - In the first four months of 2024, state-owned enterprises saw a profit decrease of 2.8%, while private enterprises experienced a profit increase of 6.4%[6] - Industrial profits for April turned positive, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% for large-scale industrial enterprises, reversing a 3.5% decline in March[37] Group 2: Real Estate and Policy Measures - Shanghai's new real estate policies include reduced down payment ratios and increased loan limits, aiming to stabilize the housing market[7] - Guangzhou and Shenzhen have also adjusted housing credit policies, lowering down payment ratios for first and second homes[15] - The implementation of a series of supportive policies is expected to gradually stabilize the real estate market in major cities[40] Group 3: International Economic Context - The U.S. Q1 GDP growth was revised down to 1.3%, a significant slowdown from 3.4% in the previous quarter, primarily due to lower consumer spending[9] - The core PCE price index for Q1 increased by 3.6%, slightly down from the initial estimate of 3.7%[44] - April's PCE inflation showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with core PCE inflation at 2.8%, indicating a cooling trend in inflation[20] Group 4: Market Outlook - The outlook for commodities remains volatile, influenced by weak domestic demand and strong policy expectations aimed at economic recovery[8] - The potential for a rebound in core consumer goods demand and prices is anticipated due to new fiscal policies and subsidies[30] - Geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions are also expected to impact commodity prices in the near term[8]