Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK9.06 [1][2][10] Core Insights - JD Logistics has shown significant improvement in profit margins, leading to an upward revision of the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 by 4.7% to 18.4% [4][8] - The company is expected to benefit from enhanced operational efficiency due to automation, cost savings from the integration of Debon Holdings, and improved economies of scale [4][5] - The report highlights that 31% of JD Logistics' revenue still comes from related parties, indicating a significant dependency on its parent company, JD Group [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 181,863 million, with a growth rate of 9.1% [6][9] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 7.6% in 2023 to 8.3% in 2024 [7][9] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 2,634 million, reflecting a 32.7% year-on-year increase [6][9] Earnings Forecast - The report revises the EPS estimates for 2024 to RMB 0.42, up from RMB 0.40, and for 2025 to RMB 0.54, up from RMB 0.47 [3][9] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to increase slightly, with projections of 1.4% for 2024 and 1.7% for 2025 [9][10] Valuation - The target price of HK$14.23 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, maintaining a WACC of 11.7% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [10][11] - The current valuation suggests a significant discount of 36.3% compared to the target price, indicating potential for price appreciation [10][11]
京东物流：利润率改善，上调2024-26年每股收益预测