金川国际：金川集团境外资源平台，优质铜钴矿投产可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Jinchuan International, highlighting its potential for growth in the copper and cobalt mining sector [2]. Core Insights - Jinchuan International is positioned as a flagship platform for Jinchuan Group to develop overseas mineral resources, with significant resource advantages and a strong operational foundation [2][7]. - The company has experienced significant revenue fluctuations from 2019 to 2023, primarily driven by the volatility in copper and cobalt prices, with mining revenue increasing from $368 million to$649 million between 2019 and 2022 [2][11]. - The Musonoi project is expected to be a major growth driver, with anticipated production of 38,000 tons of copper and 7,800 tons of cobalt upon commencement [2][27]. Company Overview - Jinchuan International is a Hong Kong-listed company under Jinchuan Group, focusing on non-ferrous metal mining and trading, particularly copper, cobalt, and nickel [7][8]. - The company operates several mines, including Ruashi and Kinsenda, and is developing the Musonoi project, which has higher grades of copper and cobalt compared to existing operations [2][27]. Financial Analysis - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at $639 million, with a significant decline of 27.55$747 million, $1.189 billion, and$1.422 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $74.82 million,$187.74 million, and $262.21 million [2][4]. - The C1 cash cost for copper in 2023 is estimated at$4,705 per ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year due to declining cobalt by-product prices [19]. Resource and Production Insights - Jinchuan International has substantial mineral resources, with the Musonoi project expected to contribute significantly to future production, boasting higher grades than existing mines [27][28]. - The Kinsenda mine is noted for its high-grade copper deposits, with production increasing by 4% in 2023, while the Ruashi mine faced challenges due to lower ore grades and power supply issues [25][22]. - The company’s total copper resources are projected at 1,090.93 thousand tons, with significant reserves across its operational and development projects [10][9].