TSMC(TSM) Great Wall Securities·2024-06-06 06:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company anticipates steady revenue growth, with a projected increase in revenue for 2024 of 20%-25% year-over-year, driven by strong demand in AI and HPC sectors [5][6]. - The CoWoS advanced packaging technology is experiencing high demand, which exceeds supply despite the company doubling its production capacity compared to the previous year [5]. - The N2 technology is on track for production in the second half of 2025, which is expected to enhance the company's technological leadership and capture growth opportunities in AI [3][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million USD) is projected to grow from 70,599 in 2023 to 86,451 in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 22.5% [1]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 27,816 million USD in 2023 to 32,360 million USD in 2024, with a corresponding growth rate of 16.3% [1]. - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from 5.36 USD in 2023 to 6.24 USD in 2024 [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 is reported at 53.1%, with a slight year-over-year decrease of 3.2 percentage points [2]. Market and Demand Insights - The demand for HPC continues to grow, contributing significantly to revenue, while smartphone business experiences seasonal declines [2]. - The advanced process technology (7nm and below) accounted for 65% of total wafer revenue in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14 percentage points [2]. - The company expects AI server processor revenue to double in 2024, contributing over 10% to total revenue, with a projected CAGR of 50% over the next five years [5].