VANKE(000002) 开源证券·2024-06-07 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Vanke A (000002 SZ) is "Outperform" (downgraded) [3] Core Views - Vanke has fully repaid its maturing USD bonds, demonstrating strong financing support [4] - The company maintains a top 3 sales ranking with relatively sufficient land reserves [4] - Vanke's debt structure continues to optimize, with significant financing support [4] - Sales scale is contracting, with a narrowing decline since Q2 2024 [4] - Short-term performance may continue to face pressure due to low-tier city project handovers [4] Financial Performance - 2024 May sales area: 1 871k sqm, down 12 2% YoY, up 13 9% MoM [4] - 2024 May sales value: RMB 23 33 billion, down 29 2% YoY, up 11 7% MoM [4] - 2024 Jan-May cumulative sales area: 7 425k sqm, down 29 0% YoY [4] - 2024 Jan-May cumulative sales value: RMB 102 21 billion, down 39 1% YoY [4] - 2024 May average selling price: RMB 13 764 per sqm, down 14 3% YoY [4] Land Acquisition - May 2024: Acquired 2 plots in Shenyang with total GFA of 97k sqm and total land cost of RMB 490 million [4] - Jan-May 2024: Acquired 5 plots in second-tier cities with total GFA of 459k sqm and total land cost of RMB 2 33 billion [4] - 2023: Acquired new projects with total GFA of 5 96 million sqm and equity land cost of RMB 46 32 billion [4] - Q1 2024: Projects under construction with GFA of 56 76 million sqm, planned projects with GFA of 31 69 million sqm [4] Debt and Financing - June 2024: Fully repaid USD 612 6 million medium-term notes [4] - May 2024: Secured over RMB 30 billion in financing, including RMB 14 34 billion CMBS at 3 6% interest rate [4] - May 2024: Obtained RMB 20 billion syndicated loan from China Merchants Bank and other financial institutions [4] - Q1 2024: Net debt ratio at 59 3%, cash holdings of RMB 83 07 billion covering short-term debt [4] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 10 26 billion, RMB 11 61 billion, RMB 12 13 billion [4] - 2024-2026 EPS: RMB 0 86, RMB 0 97, RMB 1 02 [4] - 2024-2026 PE ratio: 9 3x, 8 2x, 7 9x [4] - 2024-2026 revenue: RMB 413 67 billion, RMB 384 63 billion, RMB 357 79 billion [5] - 2024-2026 gross margin: 15 3%, 15 8%, 16 6% [5] - 2024-2026 net margin: 4 2%, 5 0%, 5 7% [5]