阿里影业：大麦并表，公司利润及成长潜力增厚

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Pictures, with a target price of HKD 0.68 per share, reflecting a 20x PE valuation for the fiscal year 2025 [2][3][20]. Core Insights - Alibaba Pictures reported a revenue of RMB 5.036 billion for the fiscal year 2024, representing a 43% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of RMB 335 million, marking a return to profitability [2][20]. - The integration of Damai significantly enhances the company's profit and growth potential, with an estimated revenue increase of RMB 868 million and an EBITA of RMB 659 million if Damai had been consolidated from the beginning of the fiscal year [2][16]. - The domestic film market is recovering, with ticketing and investment in film production showing strong growth, particularly through platforms like Taopiaopiao and Phoenix Cloud Intelligence [2][16]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For the fiscal years 2025-2027, Alibaba Pictures is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 7.012 billion, RMB 7.947 billion, and RMB 8.867 billion, with net profits projected at RMB 919 million, RMB 1.075 billion, and RMB 1.212 billion respectively [2][20]. - The company anticipates a stable growth in the domestic film market, with ticket sales projected to reach RMB 582 billion, RMB 611 billion, and RMB 641 billion over the same period [16][20]. Segment Performance - The film investment and production segment is expected to generate revenues of RMB 2.317 billion, RMB 2.565 billion, and RMB 2.762 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding profits of RMB 510 million, RMB 564 million, and RMB 608 million [16][18]. - The ticketing and technology platform segment is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 962 million, RMB 1.011 billion, and RMB 1.061 billion, with profits of RMB 362 million, RMB 380 million, and RMB 399 million [16][18]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Alibaba Pictures holds a leading position in the domestic ticketing market, benefiting from the industry's rapid growth, with the national box office increasing by 151% compared to 2019 [2][16]. - The company has a robust pipeline of over 80 films, with more than 30 projects in development, indicating strong future revenue potential [16][20].