Broadcom-博通：软硬一体的AI卖铲人

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of $1716, representing a 22% upside [1][8] Core Views - Broadcom is a platform-based tech giant with strong integration capabilities, benefiting from AI-driven semiconductor demand and VMware's software business [4][5] - The company's semiconductor solutions, especially in networking and XPU, are expected to grow significantly due to AI trends [5][9] - VMware acquisition enhances Broadcom's software business, contributing to long-term profitability [5][55] Financial Performance - FY24-26 revenue growth projected at 43.4%/12.1%/9.9%, with Non-GAAP net income growth of 19.9%/22.7%/17.5% [8][9] - FY24 semiconductor revenue expected to grow 10.8%, driven by AI-related demand, while software revenue is projected to grow 163.4% due to VMware integration [9][69] - FY24-26 Non-GAAP net margins forecasted at 45.5%/49.8%/53.3%, supported by high-margin software and operational efficiency [72] Semiconductor Solutions - Networking revenue expected to grow 39% in FY24, driven by AI-driven demand for Ethernet and custom ASIC chips [5][9] - XPU business projected to generate$ 7 billion in FY24, with AI-related revenue accounting for 35% of semiconductor revenue [5][50] - Broadcom's leadership in SerDes IP and optical transceivers positions it well for AI infrastructure needs [34][36] Software Business - VMware integration boosts software revenue to 38% of total revenue in FY24Q1, with VMware contributing $2.1 billion [5][56] - VMware's revenue is expected to grow double-digit sequentially in FY24, reaching$ 20 billion for the full year [63][69] - Broadcom's historical success in software integration, including CA Technologies and Symantec, supports confidence in VMware's integration [55][58] Industry Trends - AI-driven demand for networking and XPU chips is reshaping the semiconductor industry, with Ethernet and InfiniBand expected to coexist in AI infrastructure [23][26] - XPU market projected to reach $42.9 billion by 2028, driven by tech giants' in-house chip development and AI applications [46][48] - VMware's dominance in virtualization and hybrid cloud markets strengthens Broadcom's position in the software-defined data center space [61][66]