NKF(603707) 平安证券·2024-06-13 10:02Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.37 CNY based on a 28.5 times PE for 2024 [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 43.44 billion CNY in 2024 to 66.24 billion CNY in 2026, with net profits projected to rise from 8.67 billion CNY to 15.07 billion CNY during the same period [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic shift towards high-end injectable drugs and the expansion of its overseas business, particularly in the U.S. market, where it has established a strong presence [5][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Nanjing Jianyou Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., is a leading producer of heparin raw materials and has advanced sterile injectable production technology [5][11]. - The company has been expanding its business structure, moving from a focus on heparin raw materials to a broader range of high-end injectable products [5][11]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 39.31 billion CNY in 2023, a 6% increase year-on-year, but faced a net loss of 1.89 billion CNY due to inventory impairment and price fluctuations in heparin raw materials [5][14]. - The revenue growth from 2017 to 2022 was significant, with a CAGR of 27%, while net profit grew at a CAGR of 28% during the same period [5][14]. Heparin Market Dynamics - The heparin raw material market is expected to enter a new price cycle, with prices having dropped to 4,755 USD/kg as of April 2024, which is comparable to levels seen in 2018 [5][25]. - The company holds a top-three global market share in heparin raw materials, benefiting from China's abundant pig resources [5][23]. Overseas Business Expansion - The company has rapidly developed its overseas injectable drug business, particularly in the U.S., where it has over 50 products in operation [5][11]. - The acquisition of Meitheal in 2019 has significantly enhanced the company's direct sales capabilities in the U.S. market, contributing to a 38% year-on-year revenue increase in 2023 [5][11]. Future Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term growth through the company's ongoing expansion into biopharmaceuticals and complex formulations, which are expected to enhance its market position [5][11]. - The company is actively pursuing innovative drug development, including collaborations for new products in the U.S. market [5][11].