Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 3.20, indicating a potential upside of 24.0% from the current price of HKD 2.58 [2][6][90]. Core Insights - Harbin Electric is one of China's largest state-owned enterprises in energy equipment manufacturing, with significant market shares in coal, hydro, and nuclear power equipment [3][14]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in coal power orders, with new orders reaching CNY 13.97 billion in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 101.6% [5][24]. - The energy sector in China is transitioning towards a new power system, where coal power remains a core component despite the rapid growth of renewable energy installations [4][34]. Company Overview - Harbin Electric is a key player in the energy equipment sector, producing major equipment for coal, hydro, nuclear, and gas power generation [3][14]. - The company has a historical significance, originating from the first five-year plan of China and has evolved into a crucial backbone of the national energy infrastructure [15][19]. Industry Analysis - The energy demand in China has been growing rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% over the past eight years [42]. - Coal power still accounts for a significant portion of the energy mix, with coal-fired generation representing 63% of total power generation in 2023, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase year-on-year [4][40]. - The government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy, with expectations for coal power to continue playing a supportive role in energy security [34][52]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.5% in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with projected net profits of CNY 9.5 billion, CNY 13.9 billion, and CNY 16.8 billion respectively [6][88]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 367.9 billion, CNY 426.8 billion, and CNY 454.7 billion for the years 2024 to 2026 [87][88]. Order and Revenue Analysis - The company has experienced a consistent increase in order volumes, with total contract signings reaching CNY 43.57 billion in 2023, a 29.5% increase from the previous year [24][26]. - The revenue from coal power equipment is expected to rise as the company completes the delivery of previous low-cost orders, enhancing overall profitability [5][71]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for coal power equipment will remain strong due to ongoing projects and the need for flexibility upgrades in existing coal plants [72][75]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the planned expansion of pumped storage capacity, with expectations for significant growth in hydro power orders [76][80].
哈尔滨电气：国有能源之重器，电力需求促能源装备提质增量